New model shows Whatcom County likely past initial COVID-19 peak

BELLINGHAM, Wash. — A new modeling tool shows we’ve likely passed an initial peak in COVID-19 illness in Whatcom County, but what comes next is hard to predict.

Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach says the new-ness of the virus makes absolute predictions impossible

She likens the model to a weather forecast with a high temperature of somewhere between 30 and 80 degrees.

The model finds local cases likely peaked in early April and should continue a downward trend if current social distancing measures remain in place.

That assumes an infection rate of 8 new transmissions per every 10 infected people.

But scenarios accounting for a higher rate of spread show infections rising sharply again and not peaking until later this summer.